Eight analytical lenses that apply consistently across companies and sectors. Understanding these is the key to following the analysis.
These frameworks apply consistently across companies and sectors. Understanding them is the key to following the analysis.
In zero-marginal-cost businesses, the entity that aggregates users captures value from suppliers. AI increases supply further, which makes aggregators stronger — not weaker.
AI is sustaining for incumbents — it makes them better at what they already do. True disruption requires a new business model. Companies with the right existing model benefit most.
Zero marginal cost + large fixed creation costs = subscription + advertising hybrid. Applies to music, video, news, and AI services alike. The inevitable endpoint for any scaled AI product.
New technology is seldom disruptive on its own. Significant disruption happens when new technologies enable new asymmetric business models. Technology alone doesn't kill incumbents.
Historically, powerful local hardware won. AI reverses this: the best answer comes from cloud-scale models. Chat interfaces require almost no device capability. MacBook Neo at $599 is the proof point.
The "feed" was the Internet's native business model. The AI-native equivalent hasn't been invented yet. Tentative framing: capture value at the moment of decision, not attention.
AI compute is an opportunity cost problem. Every chip used for one purpose can't be used for another. This is why the 2029 chip shortage is baked in — rational, sequential investment decisions.
Every successful network business makes every user's experience unique. Spotify, Facebook, TikTok appear singular but are completely individualized. AI makes this more powerful still.
Every framework above rests on one axiomatic belief.
AI capabilities will continue to improve on a predictable trajectory. This is treated as given. But S-curves are only identifiable in retrospect. If improvement stalls, every framework above requires revisiting — and the $700B+ in annual CapEx becomes the largest misallocation in corporate history.